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Hurricane FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140840
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH FABIO DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER...THE EARLIER EYE ATTEMPT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY WAS
UNSUCCESSFUL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...SO 80 KT REMAINS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED.  FABIO HAS ONLY
A SHORT WINDOW LEFT TO STRENGTHEN WITH COOLER WATERS ON THE HORIZON
FOR TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS NEAR
ITS PEAK INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM.  A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO BY
MONDAY.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO COLD WATERS AROUND 20C. 
 
A TIMELY TRMM IMAGE FROM 0615 UTC WAS A GREAT HELP WITH THE INITIAL
POSITIONING...RESULTING IN A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9.  THIS
GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO A DEEP
TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...CAUSING FABIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE LONG-RANGE.  THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NUDGED A BIT
TO THE EAST AFTER DAY 3 BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 16.0N 113.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.2N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 19.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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