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Hurricane GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 090254
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012
 
GILMA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE AND
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE
77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...NEAR 50 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING GILMA TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AS IT
WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C AND IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED BEYOND 12 HOURS AS GILMA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INSIST THAT GILMA WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THIS CHANGE IN MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST ALONG 130W LONGITUDE AND A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GILMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 17.4N 120.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 18.6N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 19.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 20.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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