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Hurricane ILEANA Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 311449
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012
 
CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.4W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 115.4W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 115.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.6N 116.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.5N 119.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.8N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 24.3N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 24.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 115.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 

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