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Hurricane ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 310254
TCDEP4
 
HURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012
 
ILEANA HAS SPORADICALLY DISPLAYED A RAGGED EYE THIS EVENING.  THE
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVER PASS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT A 4.5 AND 4.0 CI NUMBER
RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY CURRENTLY AT 75
KT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT 335/5 AS IT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF
CALIFORNIA WOULD ACT TO RECURVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD MEXICO OR THE
UNITED STATES IF THE CYCLONE RETAINED A DEEP STRUCTURE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...ILEANA SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND
FLOW.  THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE AS THE GFS...WHILE
STILL THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER
SOUTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT ILEANA HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS RATHER HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE SOON TO BE EXPERIENCED.  SO WHILE THE VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WATER TEMPERATURE
COOLS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY IN ABOUT
A DAY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED
BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 21.2N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 21.8N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 22.6N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 23.1N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 23.6N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 

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