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Hurricane KENNETH Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 221455
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  A SYMMETRIC RING OF
EYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A
CLOUD-FREE EYE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETH
HAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  AFTERWARD...WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HR
PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11.
KENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD
ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS.  NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGE
IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS
ON THE HWRF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN
 

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