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Hurricane KENNETH Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 700 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230243
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
700 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011

KENNETH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED
IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS
SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPENING UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE ONSET OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHOWN IN
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CURRENTLY STEERING KENNETH.  IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...THE TROUGH
MOVES AWAY WITH A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSE
KENNETH TO TURN WESTWARD.  FINALLY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
LIKELY TO ALLOW KENNETH OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36
HOURS...THEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER
BASED ON AN OVERALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK
IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE KENNETH TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY
72 HR AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THESE THINGS COULD HAPPEN SOONER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 12.5N 115.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 12.8N 117.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 14.8N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 15.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 15.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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