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Hurricane KENNETH Forecast Discussion Number 15

Issued at 100 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230837
TCDEP3
 
HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011
 
KENNETH IS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED...LEAVING THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T AND CI
NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 95 KT.  CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KENNETH MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF KENNETH WEAKENS EVEN
FASTER THAN FORECAST.
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE
HURRICANE IS NO LONGER MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW KENNETH TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND
MAINTAIN THAT TRACK THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER KENNETH TO TURN BACK TO THE
WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS
NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS.
DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 5...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS
THAT CAUGHT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 12.5N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 13.8N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 14.7N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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