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Hurricane LANE Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180243
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE IN THE
EYEWALL OF LANE...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED.  MICROWAVE
DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL EYE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AN INDICATION THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN. 
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS 6 HR AGO...SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KT.  LANE SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
RATHER COLD WATERS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LANE TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9.  LANE SHOULD TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  AFTER THAT
TIME...THE REMNANTS OF LANE SHOULD MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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