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Hurricane LANE Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171441
TCDEP2
 
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
 
AN EYE WAS APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT
HAS SINCE BEEN OBSCURED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS ASSUMED
THAT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO LANE WILL BE OVER WATERS
SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...
IN 24 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COOL TO LESS THAN 24 DEG C...SO STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN
BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. LANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.

LANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
OF ABOUT 330/9.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
LANE SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE LATTER PART.  THIS IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 16.7N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.9N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 19.4N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 20.7N 129.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 21.4N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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