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Hurricane MIRIAM Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 241439
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 112.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 114.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.9N 115.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.8N 114.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 112.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 

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