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Hurricane MIRIAM Forecast Advisory Number 15

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 251451
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE MIRIAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
1500 UTC TUE SEP 25 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 114.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 114.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.3N 114.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.2N 115.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 25.3N 115.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 26.7N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 114.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
 

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