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Hurricane MIRIAM Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 241439
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012               
1500 UTC MON SEP 24 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       2      13      36
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       1      10      29      36
TROPICAL STORM   X       1       6      19      58      49      27
HURRICANE       99      99      94      80      30       9       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       7      29      43      24       8       1
HUR CAT 2        6      26      35      23       5       1       X
HUR CAT 3       74      52      25      12       2       X       X
HUR CAT 4       19      13       5       3       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        1       1       1       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  110KT   105KT    95KT    85KT    65KT    50KT    35KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)   1(18)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 85  11(96)   1(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
ISLA CLARION   50 21  37(58)   5(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
ISLA CLARION   64  3  25(28)   5(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN                                               

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