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Hurricane ORLENE Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 121441
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Satellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show
a ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the
eastern half of Orlene's circulation.  A blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial
intensity of 80 kt for this advisory.  Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into
the southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific
air mass.  Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence
at that time.  The official forecast is basically an update of the
previous advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt.
The cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight,
then more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying
mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United
States.  By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become
reestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough lifts northeastward.  This change in the synoptic steering
pattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration
in forward motion.

The tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an
earlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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