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Tropical Storm KAY Graphics


alt="Tropical Storm KAY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 20:33:27 GMT


alt="Tropical Storm KAY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 21:07:14 GMT

Tropical Storm JAVIER Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 090844
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula.  Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-
and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.  An automated
Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern
portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind
gusts during the past few hours.

The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the
effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level
air sooner than anticipated.  As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now
calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and
moves into a more stable environment.  Javier is forecast to weaken
to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on
Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized
deep convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  Javier is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central
United States.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm IVETTE Graphics


alt="Tropical Storm IVETTE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 14:36:14 GMT


alt="Tropical Storm IVETTE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Aug 2016 20:33:33 GMT

Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics


alt="Tropical Storm HOWARD 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 08:50:25 GMT


alt="Tropical Storm HOWARD 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 09:03:36 GMT

Post-Tropical Cyclone GEORGETTE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2016

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
1500 UTC WED JUL 27 2016                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane GEORGETTE Graphics


alt="Hurricane GEORGETTE 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 08:35:30 GMT


alt="Hurricane GEORGETTE 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Jul 2016 09:06:48 GMT

Tropical Depression RICK Graphics


alt="Tropical Depression RICK 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Nov 2015 08:32:34 GMT


alt="Tropical Depression RICK 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Nov 2015 09:04:49 GMT

Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
2100 UTC FRI NOV 20 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  45SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

Tropical Storm PATRICIA Graphics


alt="Tropical Storm PATRICIA 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" />

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 08:48:13 GMT


alt="Tropical Storm PATRICIA 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" />

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2015 09:06:35 GMT

Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 94.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 94.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h).  A motion
toward the west-southwest with some increase in forward speed is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by
Wednesday night and a turn toward the northwest by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm tonight and reach hurricane strength on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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