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Post-Tropical Cyclone EMILIA Forecast Discussion Number 32

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151433
TCDEP5
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
 
ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS LINGER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN
EMILIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS LACKED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. EMILIA IS
THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.
 
THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA HAS GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS THE WEAKENING
SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
EMILIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 15.6N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  16/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 15.4N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z 15.3N 146.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1200Z 15.2N 149.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1200Z 15.0N 155.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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