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Post-Tropical Cyclone FABIO Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181458
TCDEP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
 
CORRECTED TYPOS IN THIRD PARAGRAPH

THE REMAINING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE DISPLACED OVER 100 N
MI TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THIS SYSTEM
NO LONGER HAS THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...FABIO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
REMAINS OVER COLD WATER AND IN A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 

THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KT. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE CYCLONE OPENS INTO A TROUGH. 

DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES FROM SAN DIEGO SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THAT REGION. MARINE
FORECASTS OF THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 25.7N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  19/0000Z 26.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1200Z 27.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 28.3N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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