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Post-Tropical Cyclone GILMA Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 112041
TCDEP2
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012
 
GILMA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS...AND IT IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAD A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION
EARLIER...WINDS COULD STILL BE AT 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
 
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. NOW
THAT GILMA IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON GILMA.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 20.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 21.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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