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Post-Tropical Cyclone HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170247
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR DIMINISHED AROUND 2100
UTC...REDUCING THE CYCLONE TO NOTHING MORE THAN A SWIRL OF
LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN ABSENT LONG
ENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON AS IT CONTINUES TO
ENCOUNTER PERSISTENTLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND A DRY AND STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DISSIPATION IS
FORECAST IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/04 KT.  HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN
BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER/SHALLOWER IN
NATURE...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MEANDER AS IT ENCOUNTERS A
BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 20.2N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 20.9N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 21.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 22.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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