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Post-Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 100 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250835
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011
 

IT IS HARD TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES
THIS MORNING. A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL DETACHED
FROM A FEW PATCHES OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THIS WEAKENING
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED FAR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO
30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE DETERIORATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN
A DAY OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW
INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.  

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS...STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 13.4N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 13.5N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 13.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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