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Post-Tropical Cyclone MIRIAM Forecast Discussion Number 25

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280236
TCDEP3
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012
800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012
 
MIRIAM HAS NOT PRODUCED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 TO 15 HOURS...
AND IT THEREFORE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MIRIAM
HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT NHC
WILL ISSUE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...BUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS
THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER COLD WATER.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS.

MIRIAM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE
REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SINCE IT IS BEING BLOCKED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE
UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF MIRIAM WAS LOWERED DUE TO A REPORT OF 1000.2
MB AND 24 KT OF WIND FROM THE SHIP MONTE VERDE...DCPC2.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 22.0N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  28/1200Z 21.7N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/0000Z 21.4N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 21.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 20.9N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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