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Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170835
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS REMAIN
NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A
RECENT ASCT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ONLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN...OR THE LACK
OF...ALETTA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. DRY
AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE
CYCLONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS FASTER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/03. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SOON
DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A NORTHWARD
MOTION OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD DRIFT. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 11.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 12.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 12.5N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 13.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z 13.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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