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Tropical Depression ALETTA Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190231
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012
 
ALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  CONTINUED
STRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 

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