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Tropical Depression BUD Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260843
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
 
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. A
FORTUITOUS ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF BUD WAS EITHER INLAND OVER MEXICO OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST AND THAT WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE 25 KT AT
MOST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE AT PUERTO VALLARTA HAS BEEN
RISING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE BUD MOVING WITHIN ABOUT
40 NM OF THE CITY. THUS WHILE BUD WAS LIKELY STILL A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z...THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS
INDICATED BY ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHORTLY.

THE CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/5 AS THE LAST RELIABLE CENTER
FIX WAS FROM A 0026Z SSMIS IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. THE
SOON-TO-BE REMNANT LOW OF BUD SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS OF NOTE
THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THAT BUD LIKELY HAS DECOUPLED
AND THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW DISPLACED INLAND WELL EAST OF
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 20.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.7N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
 

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