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Tropical Depression CARLOTTA Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 161431
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
 
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS DISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF CARLOTTA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE
DECREASING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW SQUALLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING
FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM MOST LIKELY WILL MEANDER OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 17.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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