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Tropical Depression CARLOTTA Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 162035
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
200 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
 
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE DEPRESSION...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE
MOST LIKELY NEAR 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. 

THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
 
THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. THE STEERING
FLOW HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MOVE
LITTLE FOR A DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 17.9N  99.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 18.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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