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Tropical Depression CARLOTTA Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 161431
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
 
...CARLOTTA BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 99.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AND THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND
CARLOTTA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL PROBABLY
OCCURRING IN SQUALLS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST ASSOCIATED WITH
RAINBANDS. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...BOTH STORM SURGE AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...100 TO 200 MM...THROUGH MONDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...375 MM...ARE POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

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