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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1700 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111652
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
1700 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.0W AT 11/1700Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 106.0W AT 11/1700Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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