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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1700 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 111653
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E                                         
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012               
1700 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1700Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       2       3       4       2       1       2      12
TROP DEPRESSION 45      32      23      12       7      10      35
TROPICAL STORM  52      62      65      60      52      52      47
HURRICANE        1       3       9      26      40      37       6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       3       8      21      29      28       6
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       4       8       6       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       3       2       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    55KT    65KT    65KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)  16(19)  15(34)  10(44)   2(46)   X(46)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   1(14)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  19(26)  10(36)   2(38)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    

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