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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 112041
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012               
2100 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       3       3       2       1       4      10
TROP DEPRESSION 37      28      22      16       9      16      32
TROPICAL STORM  61      66      65      63      57      59      49
HURRICANE        1       4      11      19      33      22       8
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       3       9      15      26      17       7
HUR CAT 2        X       X       1       3       5       4       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       1       2       1       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    40KT    45KT    50KT    60KT    55KT    45KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1  16(17)  15(32)   6(38)   5(43)   3(46)   X(46)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)  18(26)  13(39)   2(41)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

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