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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2012

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 121441
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
1500 UTC WED SEP 12 2012
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 106.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 

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