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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012

000
FOPZ15 KNHC 072031
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 9.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       X       X       1
TROP DEPRESSION 13       4       2       1       1       2       6
TROPICAL STORM  85      75      48      29      19      25      48
HURRICANE        2      21      50      70      80      73      45
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2      18      39      42      40      40      33
HUR CAT 2        X       2       8      19      24      20       9
HUR CAT 3        X       X       3       8      14      11       3
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       2       3       2       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    55KT    65KT    75KT    85KT    85KT    75KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  11(19)   2(21)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   3( 3)  28(31)  10(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
CLIPPERTON IS  50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
CLIPPERTON IS  64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

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