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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 04 2012

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 040836
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
0900 UTC WED JUL 04 2012
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 105.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.0N 106.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 112.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 15.8N 125.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 105.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

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