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Tropical Depression HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 152035
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012

HECTOR IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...AND
AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1658 UTC SHOWED WIND VECTORS OF AT MOST 25 KT
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...HECTOR
IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THIS INTENSITY
COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/6.  A COMBINATION
OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
AGAIN  SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR HECTOR TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS
WHILE CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
AFTER 36 HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 21.5N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 23.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

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