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Tropical Depression HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
 
ONE BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HECTOR...ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT SYSTEM...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  HECTOR IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SSTS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
FURTHER WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BENT A LITTLE
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4.  THIS GENERAL PATH IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS OR
SO...AND ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE WITH THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.0N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.8N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 21.7N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 22.4N 117.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

Tropical Depression HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 160839
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
 
ONE BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HECTOR...ENOUGH TO
KEEP IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT SYSTEM...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  HECTOR IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SSTS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
FURTHER WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BENT A LITTLE
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4.  THIS GENERAL PATH IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS OR
SO...AND ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE WITH THE LATEST
NHC TRACK FORECAST.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.0N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.8N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/1800Z 21.7N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 22.4N 117.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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