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Tropical Depression HECTOR Forecast Discussion Number 22

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 162055
TCDEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012
200 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
 
ALL THAT REMAINS OF HECTOR IS A RELATIVELY SHAPELESS BLOB OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE NOW LESS-DEFINED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KT
BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  AS HECTOR
CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR...AN
INTRUDING STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS... AND GRADUALLY DECREASING
SSTS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 335/4 KT...AND THIS GENERAL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OR UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE HFIP TV15 MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 19.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1800Z 21.6N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 23.2N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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