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Tropical Depression ILEANA Forecast Discussion Number 23

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020843
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
CONVECTION REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ILEANA.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0450 UTC
ASCAT OVERPASS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION
OCCURRING AROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 265/9...WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 22.5N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/0600Z 22.3N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 21.8N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.3N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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