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Tropical Depression JOHN Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 040839
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012
 
THE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY
IN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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