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Tropical Depression KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162030
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012
 
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY HAS
DECAYED RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH JUST A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED
CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES 22C
WATER...AND MOVES FARTHER INTO A STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS. 
KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW MONDAY MORNING...AND
DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6.  KRISTY IS MOVING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
EAST...AND A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KRISTY WILL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL
MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 25.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 25.7N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 26.5N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 27.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 

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