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Tropical Depression KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170243
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT
30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  KRISTY SHOULD
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12H OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN WINDS AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN OVER COLD WATERS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6...ALTHOUGH A SHORTER TERM
MOTION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION TURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST  
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED SOLELY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS A BIT WEST OF THAT AID.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 25.3N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 25.9N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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