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Tropical Depression KRISTY Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170845
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY DISSIPATED SEVERAL HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...A 0448 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED STILL SHOWED A SWATH OF
25-30 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION....WHICH
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  SURROUNDED BY A STABLE AIR
MASS OVER 21-22C WATERS...KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE CIRCULATIONS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN.
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  THE TRACK OF
KRISTY SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION TRAVELS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE.  THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS NEAR BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE LASTEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 25.9N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 26.3N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0600Z 26.7N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 27.0N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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