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Tropical Depression LANE Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190833
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012
 
LANE STOPPED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A BLEND
OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW
OVER 21-22C WATER...AND LANE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATER THIS MORNING.  THE LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD
OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8.  LANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-
LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 20.8N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 21.1N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0600Z 21.0N 133.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/1800Z 20.8N 135.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 

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