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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 272042
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012
200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE LOW IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...THOUGH SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST IT COULD
BE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. AFTER DAY 4...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THAT SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF
ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
AND A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE
COULD REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD CAUSING IT TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15...AND
KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 15.1N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 16.6N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 17.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 20.4N 113.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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