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Tropical Depression NORMAN Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290831
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012
 
AFTER MOVING ASHORE ABOUT 10 N MI WEST OF TOPOLOBAMPO AROUND 0500
UTC...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A
SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NORMAN...WITH THE DEPRESSION LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TURN THE SMALL CYCLONE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SINALOA
AND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 25.9N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

Tropical Depression NORMAN Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290831
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012
 
AFTER MOVING ASHORE ABOUT 10 N MI WEST OF TOPOLOBAMPO AROUND 0500
UTC...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A
SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE
REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  STRONG
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NORMAN...WITH THE DEPRESSION LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TURN THE SMALL CYCLONE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SINALOA
AND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 25.9N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

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