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Tropical Depression NORMAN Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 291439
TCDEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012
 
NORMAN HAS LACKED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE 0400 UTC...AND IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. THE ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED
TO A DISORGANIZED BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM
GUASAVE MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT. DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NORMAN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST TO TURN
WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
PENNISULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMS
MODEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 26.2N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 26.4N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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