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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141452
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
 
THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS
BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH MORE
WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS LESS
INTENSIFICATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION BEING STEERED ON A WESTWARD COURSE AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTER WEAKENING...THE
SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z  9.8N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 10.2N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 10.6N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 10.8N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 11.1N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 11.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1200Z 12.2N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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