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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142032
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED...
WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS.  THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER WEAKENING
COMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE...
WITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK. 
THE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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