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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 022056
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. IN
ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTELY SHEAR.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE
FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND
THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
290/15. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
 
THE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND
FIELD...AND THOSE DATA WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST
34-KT WIND RADII. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.7N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 24.6N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 

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