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Tropical Depression TEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030240
TCDEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012
 
MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
DEPRESSION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS/CIMSS UW SHEAR ANALYSES.
THE CLOUD PATTERN GIVES EVIDENCE OF THIS SHEAR...WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AT 0000 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION HAS
ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER
THAT TIME.  SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN
72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.
 
THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE RELIABLE 300/15. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME AN
INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY HEADING AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME
SHALLOWER IN NATURE AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT LEFT OF A BLEND OF THE
TRACKS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH APPEARED TO
HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 19.0N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.4N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 24.8N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 

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