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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast/Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 19 2011

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 192036
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
2100 UTC SAT NOV 19 2011
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.8N 100.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 10.2N 102.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 10.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 11.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 12.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 101.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

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