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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast/Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 20 2011

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 201449
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
1500 UTC SUN NOV 20 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 104.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 104.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 104.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.1N 106.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.0N 117.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE  70SE  70SW  85NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 13.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 13.8N 125.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 104.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

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